Week Six came and went in a hurry but we were able to add to our win total on the year. We won 0.55 units thanks to hitting on our top play, bringing our total for the year up to 8.30 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $83.00 on the year. Our top play on the Redskins was spot on, as they pulled out the semi-upset over the Panthers and were in control all game. The two-stars did not fair as well. The Browns are still not ready to be trusted and the Texans continue to struggle offensively. The Ravens were our saving grace as they pitched a shutout vs the Titans.
As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues. Each week, we will also look back to the prior week to see if any lessons could be derived from what we’ve experienced.
3-Stars: 4-3 (+1.92 units)
2-Stars: 9-5-2 +6.38 units)
Total: +8.30 Units for a weighted win percentage of 61.22%
Without further ado, here are the picks:
Top Play (3-Star)
Teaser on Chiefs PK with Den/AZ over 38 (Thursday)
The Chiefs are coming off their first loss of the year and get a pesky team in Cincinnati in week 7. The main reason I like the Chiefs here is that in games when the total is set at 58 or higher, home favorites (i.e. the Chiefs in this game) are 12-1 straight up. That’s a solid trend to back one of the best teams in the NFL. As for the over on TNF, multiple trends point to overs in these Thursday night games, especially when both teams are coming off of a loss the week before. Denver’s defense is not what it used to be, and the Cardinals are starting to get Rosen more comfortable. I think the score ends up in the mid-40’s somewhere.
LAC/TEN Under 45.5 (Sunday Morning in London)
The London games are always weird; you wake up, go to check your fantasy lineup, and realize a game has already started. The players sometimes have the same feel as their travel to fly halfway across the globe can have negative repercussions. However, the main reason I like the under here is that I think Tennessee struggles to score again coming off a horrid offensive performance against the Ravens. Teams coming off a shutout see their games go under the total at a significant rate (15 unders to 7 overs in the last 22 occurrences). The Chargers’ offense still hasn’t found their groove, so I think this is a sloppy, run-oriented game that finishes in the low to mid thirties.
Solid Plays (2-Stars)
The Lions are coming off a bye week and are away favorites. This is a strong trend to follow. Teams in this scenario are 79-31 SU and 68-41-1 ATS. Not to mention, the Dolphins still haven’t declared who their starting QB will be, and I think the season starts to fall apart for Miami starting this week. Look for Lions to play a disciplined game and win this one by around a touchdown.
Survivor Pool Plays
Our safe plays went 3-0 last week with wins by the Texans, Rams, and Packers. Risky plays split and we avoided elimination by staying away from the Jaguars.
Safe Plays – Chiefs and Rams
Risky Plays – None (Lions would be another suggestion but as 2.5 point favorites, not exactly risky)
Stay Away – Patriots over Bears, Bucs over Browns, Eagles over Panthers, Colts over Bills
Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)
A 13-2 week should have seen you make some money in your pick ‘em league last week. Let’s repeat.
Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, Buccs, Lions, Eagles, Colts, Chiefs, Jets, Jaguars, Saints, Redskins, Rams, Falcons.
This NFL Season is shaping up to be another “Year of the Dog.” Teams getting over 8.5 points are now 7-3-1 on the year with three outright wins. The NFL is a whacky sport, so never just look at a heavy favorite and assume a win is guaranteed. Breaking out of the mold of betting favorites and overs is tough, but it’s also a more profitable approach to betting.
As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, to much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.
Finally, a complete game for the Eagles. Albeit versus a lowly Giants team but a win is a win, and the Eagles looked great last week. I think it carries over into this week as they come back to the Linc to face the Panthers. I don’t think Carolina is a great football team, mainly because Cam Newton isn’t a great passing QB. If you can contain him, which has been tough for the Eagles this year, the Panthers’ offense becomes very stagnant. Look for the defensive line to have another strong showing and force Cam to beat them through the air. On offense, I think Alshon continues to mold himself into a top level WR in the league and the chemistry with Carson is on point right now. I think the offense scores 27 points while the defense holds the Panthers to under three touchdowns. Eagles 27-20.