Philly Front Office

Week 13 NFL Best Bets

Ring the bell, we had a perfect week. We won 6.37 units, bringing our total for the year to 16.87 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $168.70 on the year. Our top play on the Turkey Day Teaser hit easily while both two star plays cashed nicely too.

As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.

 

Year-To-Date Results

3-Stars: 9-5 (+9.57 units)

2-Stars: 15-10-2 (+7.30 Units)

Total: +16.87 Units for a weighted win percentage of 61.96%

 

Without further ado, here are the picks:

 

Top Play (3-Star)

Saints/Cowboys Under 51.5 (Thursday Night)

I must be crazy to take an under in a Saints game. However, the Sharps are all over the Cowboys in this game. And while I’m not certain about that (Cowboys are 0-14 straight up as home dogs of a touchdown or more), the fact that they are getting the smart money makes me think they’ll keep this close. And for the Cowboys to keep this close, they need to keep the point total low. So that leads me to the under. The other factor in our favor is there is severe RLM that has seen the total drop 3 points despite only having 21% of tickets. Take the under here and expect a closer matchup than the Saints would like.

 

Solid Plays (2-Stars)

Browns +6

This is a line that seems a little off to me. Before the Monday night game, this line was listed around 4/4.5 points. After that game, it went up to 7 before settling back down around 6. The Texans looked very good, but that big of a line adjustment over one game is meant for one reason, to draw in the sucker bets. So don’t be suckers and go against what Vegas wants you to do. A helpful trend here is that Houston is 1-6-1 ATS off divisional wins the week before. Take the Browns.

Rams -10 and Chiefs -15

The Rams and Chiefs are both really good and coming off a bye week. As we’ve mentioned a lot before, teams coming off bye weeks that are away favorites are 70-32 ATS since 2000. And if you narrow that down to teams that are favored by more than a touchdown in those scenarios, the record improves to 12-3 ATS. So more than a play on any team, trust history here and back the red-hot Rams and the Chiefs.

 

Survivor Pool Plays

Our safe plays went 2-0 last week and the risky plays split 2-2.

Safe Plays – Rams, Chiefs, Packers and Seahawks

Risky Plays – Browns and Bills

Stay Away – Saints over Cowboys, Panthers over Bucs, Titans over Jets, Eagles over Redskins

 

Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)

We went 10-5 last week, possibly a winning week.

Saints, Colts, Steelers, Buccs, Falcons, Browns, Bills, Bears, Broncos, Rams, Packers, Chiefs, Titans, Vikings, Seahawks, Eagles

 

Eagles Play

As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t, since I have a rule to never bet them; too much emotionally invested to begin with, as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.

Well, the first half was something that almost caused me to do something I’ve never done before, turn off an Eagles game. But they turned it around right before half, and the defense played great to end the game. Schwartz started blitzing and doing some different things (finally!) and the team responded.

This week, the Eagles get the Redskins off a mini bye week. Colt McCoy was forced to start on a short week, and while some believe that to be a negative for the Skins, I think the real issue comes once teams have time to adjust to him, rather than McCoy adjusting to starting. The Eagles have had a full week to prepare for this offense, and while I still don’t buy the Eagles as a playoff team, I think the Saints smacked some life into them. If they keep playing like they did in the second half vs the Giants, this team should still be able to beat the average teams. I think we again see an ugly game, but Carson continues to get back to his old ways and the Eagles win a close one. Eagles 23-19.

Max Seymour

Proud father of the Eagles good luck charm. Financial advisor by day and sports junkie by night. Wake Forest alum and a Philadelphia suburb resident for my whole life. Statistics are my strong suit and I thoroughly enjoy using those statistics in sports and more importantly, how they can be applied to finding opportunities in the sports betting arena.