Philly Front Office

Week 16 NFL Best Bets

Rough week as we tried our hands on the totals for games. We lost 7 units, bringing our total for the year to 12.88 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $128.80 on the year. Our top play on the under in the Chiefs-Chargers game lost as the Chargers scored at the end of the game; thanks, Kansas City defense.

As I have written about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.

Year-To-Date Results

3-Stars: 10-7 (+6.30 units)

2-Stars: 19-14-2 (+6.58 Units)

Total: +12.88 Units for a weighted win percentage of 60.18%

 

Without further ado, here are the picks:

 

Top Play (3-Star)

Eagles-Browns/Bengals Under Teaser (Eagles to +4.5, Under to 50.5)

The Eagles looked to have found a spark with Nick Foles starting again, and reminded people of the talent this team still has. I think they will keep rolling and even if they don’t win, they’ll keep this game within a field goal. On the other side, the Browns are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but at this point are playing more for bragging rights. The Bengals, on the other hand, just want this year to end. I think Cleveland wins this one handedly, but more importantly, I think they hold the Bengals to under 13 points.

 

Solid Plays (2-Stars)

Ravens +4

This is more of a hunch play than anything else. The Chargers are the king of the letdown game, and after beating the Chiefs in Kansas City, I think they are primed to lay a dud here. Getting more than a field goal is very useful in a game with two good scoring defenses. Keep in mind, the Chargers are 11-17 ATS as home favorites coming off underdog wins on the road vs their division (2-4 ATS when their opponent has a 50% win percentage or higher).

Browns -9

I’ve had difficulty prognosticating the Browns so far this year but I do believe they blow Cincinnati out of the stadium this week. The Bengals are not a good football team, and the Browns are playing with a lot of pride ever since Hue Jackson was let go. I think this one turns ugly, and the Browns win by over two touchdowns.

 

Survivor Pool Plays

Our safe plays went 1-1 as the Jaguars couldn’t beat a 4th string QB.

Safe Plays – Titans, Patriots, Colts, Rams, and Browns

Risky Plays – Ravens, Jaguars, Bears

Stay Away – Vikings over Lions, Cowboys over Bucs, Saints over Steelers

 

Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)

We went 8-8 last week; a couple things go the other way, and you’re walking out a winner.

Titans, Ravens, Cowboys, Patriots, Falcons, Jaguars, Colts, Eagles, Lions, Packers, Browns, Rams, 49ers, Saints, Chiefs and Broncos.

 

Eagles Play

As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them; too much emotionally invested to begin with, as well as bias of being my favorite team), I will post what my play is on them anyway.

Where has this team been all season? Nick Foles provided the spark they needed on offense and look what happens. Don’t take that as anti-Wentz either, it just means that the coaching staff was too stubborn to fit the offense around Wentz. This offense fits all of Foles’ strengths brilliantly, and it showed Sunday night vs the Rams. I think the Eagles will continue a late season push and beat a good but not great Texans team. DeAndre Hopkins terrifies me, but I think the Eagles can shut down the rest of the Texans offense. Look for another dominant performance from the defensive line and more of the Foles to Alshon connection. Eagles win 27-20.

Max Seymour

Proud father of the Eagles good luck charm. Financial advisor by day and sports junkie by night. Wake Forest alum and a Philadelphia suburb resident for my whole life. Statistics are my strong suit and I thoroughly enjoy using those statistics in sports and more importantly, how they can be applied to finding opportunities in the sports betting arena.