Philly Front Office

A Look into Freshman, Kentucky Sharp Shooter Tyler Herro

Freshman guard Tyler Herro has thrown his name in to enter the 2019 NBA Draft. How does he project into the NBA, and how does he fit with the Philadelphia 76ers?

Fun Fact: Tyler’s SuperHerro identity is “Boy Wonder.” Seriously.

Tyler Herro is a white kid who can shoot.

Okay, that’s reductive, though maybe not overly so. You know what you’re getting with Herro. He’s a sharpshooter. He’s going to hang out behind the three point line and put the ball in the net. That’s his game. Does he have other moves? Can he drive? Can he handle? Yes to all of those, to some extent. But in the NBA, his game is going to be all about getting himself free to launch from deep.

I prefer the term “archetype,” not “stereotype” for Herro. He has the ability to run off screens, catch the ball, (pump and) shoot. Can he put the ball on the floor and drive? Yeah. Can he penetrate and pull up? Yeah. Is he going to spend most of his time getting the ball behind the line and shooting 3s? Yeah.

And there’s nothing wrong with that.

Tyler Herro the College Player

As happens with young players, Herro’s season got off to a slow start but picked up big as he became more comfortable and mature. Turning 19 in January, Herro’s story is a tale of a player improving in real time. Spectacularly, after shooting 17-21 from the line early in the season, Herro shot an incredible 70-72 once he settled in.

Unfortunately, Herro suffered an ankle injury on 2/26 against Arkansas. From 12/15 through 2/26, Herro shot 43.3% from 3. After the injury, Herro shot 25.7% from 3. Herro probably should not have been playing through it, but in a short college season, there is no time to rest, especially in March.

Ultimately, Herro is a raw player, but his shooting upside is immense. Teams will pass on him at their risk.

Where can we expect Tyler Herro to go in the 2019 NBA Draft?

Herro is one of the many “it only takes one” players in this draft. He’ll go when some team decides they can’t pass up his shooting upside.

ESPN: 17 21

Tankathon: 14 16

The Athletic: 16

If the Sixers want Herro, they will probably have to trade up for him. Could they trade all the way up to 14? That would be tough. The 16-17 range? Definitely do-able.

Tyler Herro’s Strengths

Shooting: Since 2000, there have been only four NBA seasons in which a player shot as many FTs as Herro did at as high a percentage as he did: Ray Allen and Jose Calderon in 08-09, Steve Nash in 09-10, and Brian Roberts in 13-14. That’s not bad company. Basically, guys who shoot FTs like Herro does are almost always elite 3 point shooters.

Shooting: He may need a season or two to adjust to the NBA 3 point line, but it’s hard to project Herro shooting under 38% for his career in the NBA from 3. That’s just the level of shooter he is. Like, that is basically the baseline. Most likely, he is between 40-41% with some seasons higher than that. It probably won’t be immediate, but by the time he’s in his mid-20s, he’s almost definitely going to be an elite+ shooter.

Shooting: Herro puts up a lot of practice shots. Shooting in the morning, shooting in the evening, shooting at suppertime. His workout routine sounds pretty damn intense. If Herro doesn’t succeed at the next level, it’s not going to be due to lack of practice shots. Good form practice makes perfect, and Herro has good form. He’s got everything necessary to be an elite shooter.

Tyler Herro’s Weaknesses

Limitations: Herro is not likely to be a 3-and-D player, though his D should be on the lower bound of acceptable. He’s not going to be a creator. He’s not going to wow people with his dazzling array of secondary skills. He should be a functional player aside from the shooting, but he will probably max out as functional in every category other than shooting. There’s just not a lot of upside anywhere else in his game.

Minor Injuries: I don’t look too far into minor injuries. Herro seems more prone to them than the average player though, and his performance greatly suffers whenever he picks up a knock. I was able to find at least three documented incidents in the past two years, but there may have been others. While I don’t think it’s enough to knock him down draft boards, I think any team that drafts him needs to focus on preventative maintenance, especially to his ankles.

In Conclusion

A lot of draft analysts are writing about how Herro is more than just a shooter, more than just the typical white catch-and-shoot guy. I have no such qualms calling a spade a spade. I’m not going to make him into something he isn’t. At the next level, Herro’s job is going to be to run off screens, catch the ball, and put it in the net. And that’s a useful, quality, valuable player!

As long as Herro gives effort on D, his shooting should be good enough to keep him on the floor. Again, as he’s 19, he may need a few years before he really fully develops into a finished product, but we have a very, very good idea of what this final product is going to look like. For any team that needs a complementary shooter to stretch defenses, Herro is the man.

Don’t try to be something you’re not, a lesson he would do well to internalize. Embracing his NBA role will lead to a long, long career.

Tyler Herro’s Fit with the 76ers

Sixers need a shooter. Herro is a shooter. Perfect fit!

Not quite.

The Sixers need help now. They are not in a position to wait 2+ years for a prospect to develop into a quality NBA player. To acquire Herro, it would likely require their first round pick and at least one of their seconds. For a team that will not have the cap space to acquire quality reinforcements to spend two of its top picks, that may just be too high an asking price for a guy who can’t make an instant impact.

How do you feel about Tyler Herro on the Sixers? Let us know by leaving a comment below or reaching out on Twitter!

Here is PFO’s Ultimate Highlight Reel of Tyler Herro from his freshman campaign:

Adam Schorr

Adam Schorr (@BusterDucks) likes advanced stats, perhaps too much. We must go deeper!

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