Philly Front Office - Eagles

Week 15 NFL Best Bets

Depending on where you got the total for our 3-star play, you could have had a massive week. We won 2.46 units, bringing our total for the year to 19.88 units. Remember, a unit is what your single bet would be, so if you bet $10 a unit, you would be up $198.80 on the year. Our top play on the over in the Chiefs-Ravens game didn’t hit for us (missed by 0.5 point) but we won all three of our 2-star plays, including two outright winners in the Bears and Colts.

As I have wrote about before, we have already discussed some key terms and looked at some season win total bets as well. Every week for the entire season I will be listing my best bets for the week, as well as picks and advice for survivor pools and pick ‘em leagues.

Year-To-Date Results

3-Stars: 10-6 (+9.30 units)

2-Stars: 19-12-2 (+10.58 Units)

Total: +19.88 Units for a weighted win percentage of 61.82%

Without further ado, here are the picks:

Top Play (3-Star)

Chargers/Chiefs Under 54 (Thursday Night)

Kansas City averages 36.2 points per game while allowing 27. LA averages 28.2 a game and give up 20.8. So why take the under in a game with high flying offenses? First, there is some serious reverse line movement on this game that has seen the total drop 2.5 points despite only 30% of tickets on the under. Second, there is a big trend here that favors the under. Teams that combined to score over 66 points in their previous matchup and have a total set for 50 or more points, have gone under that total 15 out of 22 times. This includes a 6-game streak of unders and nine of the last 10. This trend makes a lot of sense when you think about it as well. Teams are more familiar with an opponent when they have already faced each other. Add in that this game is a Thursday Night game and I like the under even more.

Solid Plays (2-Stars)

Texans/Jets Under 41.5

The Jets are not very good. No way around it. The Texans however are coming off a home loss to a divisional opponent. I like the under here since I expect the Texans defense to keep the Jets under 10 points. There is also RLM suggesting the under is the sharp play, as well as a nice historical trend. Home dogs of six or more points, with totals 42 or less, are 10-5 toward the under. Play the under here and bank on the Jets abysmal offense to continue.

Seahawks/49ers Under 44

Sensing a trend here? I originally looked at this game as a play on the 49ers. There was a massive RLM spike that dropped the spread from 6.5 to 3.5 despite only 32% of tickets on the 49ers. However, trends didn’t support this and neither did the fact that the Seahawks are gunning for the playoffs. Like the Cowboys-Saints game two weeks ago though, this leads us to look at the under. Obviously, for the 49ers to keep this close they have to keep the point total low. So, a play on the under is like a play on the 49ers. Take the under and if you’re up to it, I suggest a small play on the 49ers as well.

Survivor Pool Plays

Our safe plays went 2-1 as the Steelers lost in epic fashion. The risky plays split at 2-2 and we avoided traps by the Patriots and Texans.

Safe Plays – Texans and Jaguars

Risky Plays – Giants, 49ers, Packers

Stay Away – Vikings over Dolphins, Ravens over Buccs, Falcons over Cardinals

Pick ‘Em Plays (no spread)

We went 12-4 last week, should have been good enough to win your league!

Chiefs, Texans, Broncos, Falcons, Bengals, Vikings, Colts, Ravens, Lions, Packers, Jaguars, Giants, 49ers, Patriots, Rams, Saints

Eagles Play

As always, if the Eagles do not end up in my best bets section (and generally they won’t since I have a rule to never bet them, to much emotionally invested to begin with as well as bias of being my favorite team) I will post what my play is on them anyway.

Goodbye season. What an awful display against the Cowboys. We shouldn’t have even been in that game, let alone take it to overtime. The defense was gashed up the middle and the offense waited way too long to get started. Now Carson is being shut down for the season most likely and the reigns are handed back to Superbowl MVP Nick Foles. I don’t think the Eagles win this game, there is a lot of turmoil regarding the rumor of the team hiding an injury from Wentz. The Rams could also overlook the Eagles as being out of it. 11 points is too much to lay if you’re the Rams, in my opinion though. The one thing the Eagles do well on defense is keep teams out of the endzone, which has been an issue for the Rams (red zone offense that is). So while I think a win is a long shot, I do think getting the Eagles at +11 is the right play in this game. Rams 26-17.

Max Seymour

Proud father of the Eagles good luck charm. Financial advisor by day and sports junkie by night. Wake Forest alum and a Philadelphia suburb resident for my whole life. Statistics are my strong suit and I thoroughly enjoy using those statistics in sports and more importantly, how they can be applied to finding opportunities in the sports betting arena.

Most popular

Most discussed